24 enero 2008

Siguiendo las pistas de la recesión

Jonathan Higuera aporta en BusinessJournalism.com algunas pistas para seguirle el rastro a la temida recesión:

First, they should not shy away from calling it as they see it. Why wait for the official word from an economist to tell us we’re in a recession. If you do, you might be half way through the business cycle before your reporting reflects the situation.

A better strategy is to take it upon yourself to do some measurements and observation. Are the lines at the local soup kitchens getting longer in your city? Are the food banks running out of food? Are more people applying for unemployment and food stamps? How are new car sales doing and what are the bankruptcy and foreclosure rates in your town?

From there, start studying the economic data. Don’t just pay attention to the jobless rate, but also take note of how many jobs were created and in what sectors and compare the data historically.

Other data such as commercial real estate activity, gross state product and business startup and closure rates can also provide excellent fodder for analyzing an economy’s performance. I always found the Consumer Price Index’s basket of goods a bit too narrow to provide a broad view of inflation, but if it’s the only tool at your disposal, use it.

While you are at it, take a look at the earnings, hiring plans and the general behavior of the largest employers in your area. Are they instituting hiring freezes or are they busy churning out widgets? Every town, city or region will have varying degrees of impact. Find those differences and report on them. But most of all, understand what makes your local economy tick.

Más, aquí.

No hay comentarios: